Are we there yet? That’s usually the question from the backseat on a road trip, and occurs ever other mile, performed by nagging kiddos.
I’m not one of the sharpest knives in the drawer, but I do pay attention to my surroundings. I have seen a decline in consumer confidence and a resistance to spending disposable income on commodities that are non-essential. This trend, at least in our industry (printing) has been declining over the past 18 months, with a negative acceleration in the first half of 2025. One of our divisions has seen a downward spiral in revenue by a nightmarish drop around 80%!
I did a little research and here are my findings:
Yes — a recession is looming, but it’s not guaranteed. Here’s the current picture as of mid-2025:
🔍 Key Indicators Suggest Risk, Not Certainty
📉 1. Leading Economic Indicators Are Declining
- The U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) has been falling for over a year.
- This typically signals a slowdown 6–12 months before it’s felt broadly.
- One of the first sectors to feel it is the widely known “Mom & Pop” businesses.
💼 2. Labor Market Cooling
- Job growth has slowed.
- Unemployment claims are creeping up — a classic early sign of economic trouble.
- But overall unemployment is still relatively low, around 4%.
🏛️ 3. Interest Rates Remain High
- The Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady after rapid hikes, which often leads to recession.
- High rates = expensive loans = slower spending and investment.
📊 4. Business and Consumer Confidence is Mixed
- Consumers are spending more cautiously.
- Businesses are pulling back on hiring and capital investments.
- More people are using credit card debt as a means of survival.
📉 Probabilities from Experts
- Most economists put the risk of a U.S. recession in the next 6–12 months at around 30–40%.
- Some advanced models (including labor market-based predictors) estimate a 50–80% chance that we are either already in or on the verge of a mild recession.
💥 Possible Triggers for a Full Recession
- Geopolitical shocks (wars, tariffs, oil spikes)
- High consumer debt + rising delinquencies
- Banking sector stress
- Stagnant wage growth vs rising cost of living
In summary, I believe we’re there. In a recession. Almost all of the signs are pointing toward the high probability that we’re going to experience greater difficulties in the short term across the board. We’re all going to need to tighten our belts, keep on keeping on, avoid taking on new debt, and pray that we come through the prospect of an impending and ongoing recession.